Premier League Clubs’ UEFA Champions League Knockout-Stage Performances: An Analysis
By: AT
Image Credit: Janosch Diggelmann
The league stage of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League (UCL) concluded following the eighth matchday on January 28. While many clubs throughout Europe either rose in triumph or faded away in disappointment, all six Premier League (EPL) clubs participating in the 2025-26 UCL — Arsenal FC, Chelsea FC, Liverpool FC, Manchester City, Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur — performed notably well, particularly in the final two matchdays. (See our UCL analysis on the first six 2025-26 UCL league stage matches here.)
Five of the six participating EPL clubs — namely Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester CIty and Tottenham — finished among the first eight positions, which allow for direct qualification to the round of 16. The sixth club, Newcastle qualified for the knockout stage playoff round, which is reserved for clubs that finished from ninth- to 24th place. Clubs ranked 25th to 36th are eliminated from the UCL. Newcastle’s qualification marked the first time that club clinched qualification for UCL knockout stage football in club history.
The 2025-26 rankings for EPL clubs represent an improvement from those of EPL clubs that participated in the 2024-25 UCL edition, the first under the current format. Last season, out of four participating EPL clubs, three qualified for the round of 16, while the fourth — Manchester City — finished 22nd and settled for a playoff round matchup against LaLiga club Real Madrid. City lost that matchup, ultimately depriving themselves from competing in a UCL round of 16 contest for the first time since 2012-13, when they finished 4th/last in their group.
The analysis will be presented by order of the clubs’ rankings in the league stage. Let us see how these six clubs from the most prestigious football league in the world fared in the final matchdays of the 2025-26 UCL league stage, and how these matches affected their final rankings.
Chances to Win it All
As of January 31, 2026, out of the 24 remaining UCL participants, these six clubs fare well in DraftKings’s prediction markets with respect to their chances of winning the 2025-26 UCL title. The odds (and their rankings among the 24 clubs) for all six clubs are the following:
Arsenal FC
2024-25 European continental club competition performance: UCL semifinals, lost 3-1 on aggregate against PSG
2025-26 UCL title odds: +370 (1st)
Chelsea FC
2024-25 European continental club competition performance: UECL winners, defeated LaLiga club Real Betis by a 4-1 score
2025-26 UCL title odds: +1,800 (7th)
Liverpool FC
2024-25 European continental club competition performance: UCL round of 16, lost on penalties (1-1 on aggregate) PSG
2025-26 UCL title odds: +1,000 (6th)
Manchester City
2024-25 European continental club competition performance: UCL playoff round, lost 6-3 on aggregate against Manchester City
2025-26 UCL title odds: +800 (5th)
Newcastle United
2024-25 European continental club competition performance: N/A (competed in the 2023-24 UCL, finishing fourth of their group in the group stage)
2025-26 UCL title odds: +4,000 (12th)
Tottenham Hotspur
2024-25 European continental club competition performance: UEL winners, defeated EPL rivals Manchester United by a 1-0 score
2025-26 UCL title odds: +3,000 (10th)
Knockout Stage: Playoff Round and Round of 16
On January 30, Newcastle United, the sole EPL club slated to play in the UCL playoff knockout round, drew Azerbaijan Premier League club Qarabag FK. Their knockout round duel ended in a 9-3 aggregate victory for The Magpies: a 6-1 Newcastle away victory in the first-leg match and a 3-2 home victory in the second-leg match.
On February 27, UEFA held the round of 16 draw, which materialized into the following matchups:
Arsenal v. Bayer Leverkusen
Chelsea v. Paris Saint-Germain (PSG)
Liverpool v. Galatasaray
Manchester City v. Real Madrid
Newcastle v. FC Barcelona
Tottenham v. Atlético Madrid
The first-leg matches produced porous results for the five EPL clubs, four three of the clubs suffering losses, while Arsenal drew 1-1 away against Leverkusen and Newcastle drew 1-1 at home against Barcelona. Chelsea lost 5-2 away against PSG, Liverpool lost 1-0 away against Galatasaray, City lost 3-0 away against Real Madrid (thanks to a Federico Valverde hat-trick) and Tottenham lost 5-2 away in humiliating fashion against Atlético.
On March 16, ahead of the round of 16 second-leg matches, the probabilities of the six EPL clubs advancing to the 2025-26 UCL quarterfinals are the following:
Arsenal: 79.0%
Liverpool: 58.8%
Newcastle: 32.9%
Manchester City: 13.4%
Chelsea: 5.9%
Tottenham: 4.1%
Five of the six EPL clubs will play their second-leg matches at home, with Newcastle being the only club playing their second-leg match away, at Barcelona’s iconic Camp Nou.
