The Case for Europe's Top Five Domestic Cup Competitions

Anthony Tazbaz

Image Credit: Mitch Rosen

With the EFL Cup wrapped up following Sunday’s final between Liverpool FC and Chelsea FC and the latter stages of several cup competitions underway, it is time to take some time and assess the competitions’ quality and the likely winners of this years’ editions.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 FA Cup

Current stage: Round of 16

Upcoming matches:

• Monday, February 26

  • Coventry City (EFL Championship) vs Maidstone United (National League South/sixth division), Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry (14:45)
    

• Tuesday, February 27

  • AFC Bournemouth vs Leicester City (EFL Championship), Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth (14:30)

  • Blackburn Rovers (EFL Championship) vs Newcastle, Ewood Park, Blackburn (14:45)

  • Luton Town vs Manchester City, Kenilworth Road, Luton (15:00)
    

• Wednesday, February 28

  • Chelsea vs Leeds United (EFL Championship), Stamford Bridge, London (14:30)

  • Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United, City Ground, West Bridgford (14:45)

  • Wolves vs Brighton, Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton (14:45)

  • Liverpool vs Southampton FC (EFL Championship), Anfield, Liverpool (15:00)
    

Although there will be further developments beyond the round of 16, we can already assess the potential favourites to advance to the quarterfinals and which clubs possess the capabilities to winning the title. On Monday, EFL Championship club Coventry City will face against Maidstone United, a sixth division club that managed to defeat third-place EFL Championship club Ipswich Town. Although Coventry remain the heavy favourites, especially when accounting for their hosting rights, Maidstone players have proven their abilities of not only competing, but stealing matches against higher-tiered clubs.

The EFL Championship clubs for Tuesday’s matches will both be at odds due to Leicester City playing on the road against an unpredictable AFC Bournemouth squad and Blackburn Rovers hosting Newcastle United, a Premier League mainstay who are looking to regain their elite form from last year. Despite Blackburn being hosts, Newcastle are provided an ideal opportunity to bounce back to winning ways and reach the next step in their quest for silverware — a first major trophy since 1955 (excluding the EFL Championship league title). An FA Cup title would also ensure a return to a UEFA competition, albeit the Europa League instead of the Champions League for which they qualified last season. However, if any upset were to occur, Leicester may be the EFL Championship club primed to make an appearance in the quarterfinals, not Blackburn.

To finish Wednesday’s matches, Manchester City — the reigning FA Cup champions and our predicted favourite to win the competition — will face Luton Town. Despite the match taking place at Kenilworth Road and not at the Etihad Stadium, Luton may struggle against an opponent undefeated in the last 16 matches, in which City won 13 of the last 14. However, considering Luton Town lost only 2-1 in their only meeting against City, supporters at Kenilworth Road can look forward to this matchup with a degree of optimism.

On Wednesday, three of the big-six EPL clubs will be in action, with Chelsea hosting Leeds United, Manchester United visiting Nottingham Forest and Liverpool hosting Southampton. Given the struggles encountered by both Chelsea and Manchester United, the result could go either way, which means a major upset affecting a big-six club may occur before a special and what should a be joyful Leap Day. With Liverpool having just hoisted the EFL Cup and are scheduled to face a second division club, anything other than a convincing Liverpool win would bode terribly at Anfield.

Lastly, Wolverhampton Wanderers hosting Brighton Hove & Albion may be the most underrated match of the day and the round of 16. Considering both clubs are not far apart in the EPL table, the result could favour either club as there is no real outstanding favourite. With that being said, the winner of this match could become the competition’s dark horses.

Predicted quarterfinals winners:

• Coventry City

• AFC Bournemouth

• Newcastle United

• Manchester City

• Chelsea

• Nottingham Forest

• Wolves

• Liverpool

🏆 Predicted 2023-24 FA Cup champions: Manchester City

🇮🇹 Coppa Italia

Current stage: Semifinals (1st leg matches to begin on April 2)

More information coming soon!

🇩🇪 DfB Pokal

Current stage: Quarterfinals (3/4 matches complete — last quarterfinals match to be held on March 12)

More information coming soon!

🇫🇷 Coupe de France

Current stage: Quarterfinals

Upcoming matches:

• Tuesday, February 27

  • Lyon vs RC Strasbourg, Groupama Stadium, Lyon (14:45)
    

• Wednesday, February 28

  • FC Rouen (Championnat National/third division) vs Valenciennes FC (Ligue 2), Stade Robert Diochon, Petit-Quevilly (TBD)
    

• Thursday, February 29

  • Le Puy Foot 43 (National 2/fourth division) vs Stade Rennais, Stade Geoffroy Guichard, Saint-Etienne (14:45)
    

• Wednesday, March 13

  • Paris Saint-Germain vs OGC Nice, Parc des Princes, Paris (15:00)
    

Although the most anticipated match will be played on March 13 — between two of the top four Ligue 1 clubs as of writing — the final week of February will shape the final four of the Coupe de France, which will be open season for every club that would avoid drawing against PSG of Nice. On Tuesday, two struggling clubs throughout the season — Lyon and Strasbourg — will aim to salvage their seasons with a shot at a piece of glory. Lyon, who have been in great form as of late with five consecutive wins, are the match hosts, consequently making them match favourites. Their new signings have already provided much-needed help, particularly in the attack and the midfield. However, Strasbourg is known for rising to the occasion against big French clubs, especially on the road. For Tuesday’s matchup, expect it to be the best Coupe de France match of the week.

Matches played Wednesday and Thursday will present excellent opportunities for lower-tiered clubs to make history by having the chance of being part of the competition’s final four. On Wednesday, we will witness at least one non-Ligue 1 club advance to the semifinals; it is only a matter of which club between Ligue 2 outfit Valenciennes FC and hosts FC Rouen, who play in the Championnat National, France’s third division. A second division club travelling to play in front of a third division club’s supporters signifies a moment for either club to make history and compete at a prestigious stage with some of France’s best clubs. Regardless of the result, either club will certainly face an immense uphill climb in the semifinals. However, that idea should be additional motivation heading into Wednesday’s matchup.

However, either winner on Tuesday may not be the only ones to make history, that is if CFA 2 (fourth division) club Le Puy Foot 43 manages to pull of the unspeakable upset and win against a traveling and tired Stade Rennais squad. Coming off intense league matches — most recently a 1-1 draw against PSG on Sunday — and a midweek Europa League match for the past two weeks, Rennes cannot take this matchup lightly. We have already seen several instances where Ligue 1 or Ligue 2 clubs lost to third and fourth division clubs, which would be nothing short of an end to a disappointing series of matches for the Brittany club. However, a Rennes win would instantly bump them up to second highest favourites for winning the competition. Despite the lopsided matchup and what may seem to be a walk in the park, this may be Rennes’s most important match of the season!

Lastly, PSG and Nice will be an instant classic for this year’s competition. First, Nice have had an incredible season and are currently situated in fourth place of Ligue 1, only three points behind second-place Stade Brestois and one point behind third-place AS Monaco, but trail first-place PSG by 14 points. Paris’s lead in Ligue 1 speaks for itself: high-quality talent and a cunning ability to adapt and overcome a difficult and congested schedule, which included a 2-0 victory in the Champions League against Real Sociedad and a Coupe de France Round of 16 victory against second-place Brest.

However, Nice have found success against PSG, particularly in Paris. They are the only French club to defeat Les Parisiens and the only club in all competitions to defeat them on home turf: a 3-2 win in early September. As well, PSG will look to overcome recent challenges that arose over the past couple of season in this competition. Ironically, it all started two years ago following a penalty shootout loss against Nice in the 2021-22 Round of 16, which was also held at the Parc des Princes. Regardless of the result and the matchup in the semifinal, the winner of this match will be by far the most favoured club to win the competition.

Predicted quarterfinals winners:

• Lyon

• Rouen

• Stade Rennais

• PSG

🏆 Predicted 2023-24 Coupe de France champions: PSG

🇪🇸 Copa del Rey

Current stage: Semifinals — 2nd leg

• Tuesday, February 27

  • Real Sociedad vs RCD Mallorca, Reale Arena, San Sebastián (15:30) — tied 0-0 on aggregate
    

• Thursday, February 29

  • Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid, Estadio San Mamés, Bilbao (15:30) — Athletic Club lead 1-0 on aggregate

On Tuesday, Real Sociedad and RCD Mallorca will duel for a third time within a month. Everything remains up for grabs as both clubs played to a scoreless draw in Palma Mallorca. Less than two weeks later, on February 18, Real Sociedad defeated Mallorca 2-1, again in Palma. Since then, however, Sociedad lost 3-1 on Friday February 23 at home. Meanwhile, Mallorca earned a point on the road, drawing 1-1 against Deportivo Alavés. Considering Sociedad boast a far more talented squad, possess extensive experience and are playing at home, Sociedad should break the deadlock and reach their second Copa del Rey final in five years. This view is supported by the updated prediction in the predicted 2024 trophy winners article.

Elsewhere, Athletic Club Bilbao will look to finish the job against Atlético Madrid. Leading 1-0 on aggregate — winning at the Estadio Metropolitano in Madrid — Bilbao are in prime position to reach a third final in five years. However, their performance will need to exceed the one seen on Sunday, where Bilbao lost 3-1 against Real Betis. Atlético, on the other hand, will need to improve their performance if they are to dream of a first Copa del Rey final since 2013, where they defeated local rival Real Madrid 2-1 after extra-time.

At the moment, Atlético are winless in their last two matches — drawing 2-2 against UD Almería on Sunday and losing 1-0 against Inter Milan in UCL — and in five of their last six matches. (Their only win during that stretch came against UD Las Palmas by a 5-0 score). With two struggling sides that are close in terms of quality facing off in a semifinal, it will be unlikely to see a convincing win by either side. Instead, we may be subject to a cagey 1-0 or 2-1 victory or a draw. With that being said, see below for the predicted outcome. It may as well be yet another all-Basque final, as it was in 2020, whereby Sociedad emerged victorious.

Predicted semifinals winners:

• Real Sociedad

• Athletic Club

🏆Predicted 2023-24 Copa del Rey champions: Real Sociedad