What May Happen If a Nation Withdraws from the World Cup?
Image Credit: CHUTTERSNAP
A football supporter watching the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may begin to wonder about the potential ramifications for nations from the region that have qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will take place in June and July 2026 in Canada, Mexico and the United States. Two key questions arise: will qualified nations from the region be able to travel, train and participate in the tournament? And if not, which nations would take their place?
These questions have become increasingly pressing. On March 11, 2026, the Iranian Minster of Sports announced that Iran cannot perform in the World Cup under the current circumstances. Iran was scheduled to play group-stage matches against Belgium and New Zealand at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, and against Egypt at Lumen Field in Seattle. That said, the nation has not formally withdrawn from the tournament — at least not yet — and FIFA has not provided guidance on the matter.
As a result, should Iran ultimately withdraw, the number of qualified nations for this World Cup would decrease from 42 to 41, leaving seven vacant slots for tournament participants. Six of these slots would be filled via both the European and Intercontinental playoffs. Those playoffs take place in Mexico at the end of March (stay tuned for an article on those events!).
2026 FIFA World Cup Rules
What happens when a nation withdraws from the tournament? Beyond financial penalties, the Regulations for the FIFA World Cup 26™ do not clearly stipulate conditions for a nation’s withdrawal from the tournament several months prior to the tournament.
Notwithstanding rules about withdrawal during the tournament, Article 6.2 mentions that nations withdrawing from the tournament “no later than 30 days” before the tournament’s opening date are subject to a fine of CHF 250,000 from the FIFA Disciplinary Committee. However, if Iran withdraw after May 11, 2026 (the tournament’s opening match is on June 11), the fine may increase to CHF 500,000.
Additional sanctions are also possible, including bans from future FIFA tournaments.
Scenarios to Replace a Qualified Nation
Should Iran officially withdraw, which nation would replace it? While FIFA’s rules to not explicitly refer to a replacement mechanism, existing qualification quotas and the FIFA Men’s World Rankings could influence the decision-making process.
1) Look Towards Other Asian Nations
The World Cup allocates slots by continent. In the newly expanded 48-nation tournament, eight Asian nations qualify for the World Cup, while a ninth has the chance to qualify via the Intercontinental Playoffs (ICP). If FIFA replaces Iran with Asia’s ICP participant, Iraq would therefore qualify for its second World Cup tournament, a first since 1986 (which coincidentally took place in Mexico). In this scenario, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — which lost 3-2 on aggregate against Iraq in the fifth/final qualification round in Asia — would advance to the ICP.
However, this seemingly straightforward solution has become complicated since Iraq and the UAE are also caught up in the Middle East conflict. Iraq has completely closed its airspace, while the UAE has restricted activity within its airspace, and companies have cancelled most inbound and outbound flights from that nation’s cities. Moreover, numerous reports indicate that several players and coaching personnel from both nations are unable to leave areas affected by this conflict.
If neither Iraq nor the UAE can participate in the World Cup or the ICP, FIFA could potentially Indonesia and Oman — the two nations eliminated in the fourth round of World Cup qualifiers in Asia — to take their places. However, given that these two nations were eliminated at the same time, a big question surrounds which nation qualifies directly and which nation goes to the ICP.
2) Play With 47 Nations
Another option would be for FIFA to proceed with 47 nations instead of 48. Under this scenario, Group G would consist of only three nations, compared to the conventional four nations in other World Cup groups. However, this approach could complicate the brackets, given that some third-place nations from the groups can qualify for the round of 32. To solve this issue, FIFA may need to exclude the possibility of a third-place qualifying berth for any third-place nation from Group D.
3) Re-organize the Intercontinental Playoffs
If Iran withdraw and neither Iraq nor the UAE can compete in the ICP, FIFA should amend the structure of the ICP, so that it can still accommodate the five other participating nations: Bolivia, DR Congo, Jamaica, New Caledonia and Suriname. The bracket can be re-organized in the following structure:
A preliminary round: two lowest-ranked nations — New Caledonia and Suriname — play against each other in a single knockout match, with the winner advancing to the final round.
The final round: the preliminary-match winner competes against the highest-ranked nation (DR Congo) and the two other nations (Jamaica and Bolivia) compete against each other in a single knockout match. The two winners qualify for the World Cup.
However, one vacant slot would still remain. FIFA could solve this issue in one of two ways. First, FIFA could declare that Iraq — and even the UAE — cannot continue to participate in the qualifying process. As a result, to accelerate the qualification process, the two final round losers could play a single knockout match, with the winner advancing to the World Cup. Second, that match between the two losers would still take place, with the winner later facing Iraq — or either the UAE, Oman or Indonesia — in a single knockout match, with the winner advancing to the tournament.
4) Wait Until June
Amend the FIFA regulations to enable the Intercontinental Playoffs bracket involving the Asian nation to take place in early June shortly before the World Cup opening date; the other ICP bracket already scheduled for late March in Mexico can still proceed. By that time, if Iran indeed withdraw, Iraq would officially qualify for the tournament by default, and bypassing the ICP could give Iraqi players and personnel more time to find ways to leave the country, even if the nation remains caught in the crossfire of the conflict. With Iraq qualified, the UAE can take Iraq’s place in the ICP.
With the three-nation bracket involving the UAE taking place in June, more supporters could enjoy the pre-tournament festivities, while FIFA would have a final opportunity to test logistics at Mexico’s host stadiums one last time (though many tournament volunteers would need to begin their duties earlier as a result). As well, the three nations in that ICP bracket should sign contracts that include provisional guarantees for a training facility, a hotel and logistical support during their World Cup participation. The winner of that bracket would ultimately receive and use these provisional benefits during the tournament.
The qualifying path would ultimately remain the same: Bolivia and Suriname play against each other, with the winner advancing to play against the UAE, which currently rank 68th in the FIFA Men’s World Rankings, ahead of Bolivia and Suriname. The winner of that match advances to the World Cup.
Concluding Remarks
Ultimately, this whole situation is messy and extremely complex. Football supporters looking forward to the World Cup do not want to see a nation’s participation in the tournament thrown into doubt, — especially when the geopolitical conflict involves one of the host nations.
Moreover, we do not welcome the possibility of a nation from another confederation taking the place of a qualified nation that may officially withdraw. (No, Italy — the highest-ranked nation that has so far failed to qualify for the tournament — cannot, and should not, automatically qualify.)
Our position: A qualifying nation qualifies for the FIFA World Cup based on merit stemming from results against nations from the same confederation (continent) during the qualification process. That said, the next-best performing nations from Asia behind Iran deserve qualification priority in the event of an extraordinary case that renders a nation unable to participate in the tournament. If that outcome cannot be fulfilled, the priority should fall onto the Intercontinental Playoffs participants.
Update: The Iraqi national team have managed to charter a private plane for their trip to Mexico ahead of the Intercontinental Playoffs (ICP). Iraq will play the ICP Path B final against either Bolivia or Suriname on March 31 at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey.
Comment your predictions regarding the fate of the Iraqi, Iranian and Emirati national teams.
