2025-26 UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Preview & Predictions
By: AT
Image Credit: Janosch Diggelmann
The round of 16 of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League (UCL) round of 16 concluded prior to the March 2026 international window. Among the eight winners of that round, three clubs were from LaLiga, which has the highest representation among all leagues. The five other quarterfinalists comprise two clubs from the Premier League (EPL), one from Bundesliga, one from Ligue 1 and one from Portugal’s Primeira Liga.
On March 18, 2026, UEFA conducted the UCL quarterfinals draw, which produced the following matchups (the home club for the first-leg match is listed as the first club in each bullet):
FC Barcelona v. Atlético Madrid
Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) v. Liverpool FC
Real Madrid v. Bayern Munich
Sporting CP v. Arsenal FC
This article provides a preview of each UCL quarterfinal matchup with analysis backed by data and insight. It also presents our intuitive predictions and Opta Analyst’s counter-intuitive predictions.
FC Barcelona v. Atlético Madrid
Total matchups (all competitions): 250 matches
Record: 115 Barcelona wins, 78 Atlético wins and 57 draws
Total UCL matchups: 4 matches
Record: 2 Atlético wins, 1 Barcelona win and 1 draw
Barcelona
Just over a month after losing the Copa del Rey (Spanish cup) semifinals against Atlético, but winning their last league match against them by a 2-1 score on Saturday, Barcelona are poised to defeat their league rivals and reach the UCL final, if not to win it all. To that end, they will have to eliminate a club that had triumphed over Barcelona on the two previous UCL knockout-stage clashes (2013-14 and 2015-16). Barcelona will be playing their first UCL quarterfinals match at Camp Nou since 2019, when they defeated Liverpool by a 3-0 in the 2018-19 UCL semifinal first-leg match.
With Raphinha injured, it will be up to Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal and potentially Fermín López to provide the scoring. As well, young Spaniards Gavi and Pedri will have to take charge of the midfield, which will be the flashpoint of this matchup. Whichever club wins the midfield battle will advance to the semifinals.
Ranking 5th
Record: 5 wins (W), 1 draw (D) and 2 losses (L)
2025-26 UCL round of 16 — vs Newcastle United:
First leg (away): 1-1 draw
Second leg (home): 7-2 win
Atlético Madrid
After defeating Barcelona in the Copa del Rey, Atlético will aim to build on that momentum and prevent Barcelona from winning another major title this season.As well, Los Rojiblancos aim to qualify for their first UCL semifinals since 2017, when they lost to local archrivals Real Madrid by a 4-2 aggregate score. That elimination occurred only one year after losing the 2015-16 UCL final in heartbreaking fashion on penalties against their archrivals.
Atlético manager Diego Simeone will once again have to rely on a collective defence effort and efficient attacking led by such forwards as Julian Álvarez, Alexander Sorloth and newly acquired Ademola Lookman. Midfielder Antoine Griezmann will also have to play a major role, despite leaving for Major League Soccer club Orlando City SC after the end of this season. These two matches may be the Frenchman’s final UCL matches of his illustrious career.
2025-26 UCL performances:
League stage:
Ranking 14th
Record: 4W, 1D and 3L
Playoff knockout round — vs Club Brugge
First leg (away): 3-3 draw
Second leg (home): 4-1 win
Round of 16 — vs Tottenham Hotspur:
First leg (home): 5-2 win
Second leg (away): 3-2 loss
Paris Saint-Germain v. Liverpool FC
Total matchups: 6 matches
Record: 3 PSG wins and 3 Liverpool wins
Total UCL matchups: 4 matches
Record: 2 PSG wins and 2 Liverpool wins
PSG
To win consecutive UCL titles, PSG will aim for a repeat triumph against their UCL round of 16 matchup from last year. After defeating Liverpool on penalties at Anfield (1-1 on aggregate after extra-time), Les Parisiens aim to break Liverpool supporters’ hearts once more. Last season, PSG produced an upset against the likely 2024-25 UCL title favourites and the future 2024-25 EPL title winners. This season, a PSG triumph would be another significant blow to Liverpool’s disastrous 2025-26 season.
Although PSG were limited to one goal between both matches against Liverpool last season, their attacking trio — more refined and experienced than during last year’s meetings — continues to be a formidable asset for Paris. As well, PSG’s midfield, led by the Portuguese duo of João Neves and Vitinha — arguably the best midfielder in the world right now — may prove even more vital to PSG’s success than any of their forwards. PSG homegrown midfielder Warren Zaïre-Emery has also proven useful, re-integrating himself among the elite starting eleven and being a viable replacement for Fabián Ruiz, who has been sidelined with an injury.
2025-26 UCL performances:
League stage:
Ranking 11th
Record: 4W, 2D and 2L
Playoff knockout round — vs AS Monaco
First leg (away): 3-2 win
Second leg (home): 2-2 draw
Round of 16 — vs Chelsea FC:
First leg (home): 5-2 win
Second leg (away): 3-0 win
Liverpool
Liverpool’s season is on the line — either they defeat PSG and live to fight another day, or they finish the season without a trophy. Currently ranking fifth in the 2025-26 EPL table, Liverpool are all but guaranteed to miss out on an EPL title repeat. The club also suffered premature exits from the EFL Cup and FA Cup — the latter of which ended with a crushing 4-0 away loss against Manchester City in the quarterfinals — and lost their Supporters’ Shield match against Crystal Palace in their first match of the 2025-26 season.
The Reds’ defence will have to be phenomenal against PSG’s relentless attacks and their offence will have to take advantage of a tired defence that has experienced injuries this season (PSG players have essentially played without a substantial break since July 2024). Having announced one week ago his Liverpool departure at the end of this season, Mohammed Salah may be playing his final UCL matches of his career. That said, Salah will be carrying immense pressure, accompanied by a struggling Cody Gakpo and an inconsistent Hugo Ekitike, who is likely very eager to punish his former club.
2025-26 UCL performances:
League stage:
Ranking 3rd
Record: 6W, 2L
Round of 16 — vs Galatasaray:
First leg (away): 1-0 loss
Second leg (home): 4-0 win
Real Madrid v. Bayern Munich
Total matchups: 28 matches
Record: 12 Bayern wins, 12 Real Madrid wins and 4 draws
Total UCL matchups: 22 matches
Record: 10 Real Madrid wins, 9 Bayern wins and 3 draws
Real Madrid
The 15-time UCL winners will be facing a familiar foe. Both clubs have played against each other on multiple occasions, especially in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds. They also boast the most UCL quarterfinals appearances in the competition’s history: 24 for Bayern and 22 for Real Madrid. The Spanish club, which crushed Manchester City in the round of 16, enter the quarterfinals as the underdogs against our favourites to win this year’s UCL title.
To defeat the Bundesliga heavyweights, Madrid will have to rely on consistency among their forwards, particularly Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé. Another hat-trick from Federico Valverde — which Valverde produced in the first-leg match against City — would not hurt Madrid’s chances to qualify for the semifinals. Their defence and goalkeeping, however, will have their work cut out against a stellar Bayern offence.
2025-26 UCL performances:
League stage:
Ranking 9th
Record: 5W, 3L
Round of 16 — vs Manchester City:
First leg (home): 3-0 win
Second leg (away): 2-1 win
Bayern
As our UCL title favourites, the Bavarian club seek to exercise their demons against a club that has recently outclassed them in UCL knockout rounds. The most recent matchup — the 2023-24 UCL semifinals — ended with Real Madrid sneaking into the final with a 4-3 aggregate victory. Bayern had the 3-2 lead until the 88th minute, when then-Madrid super-sub forward Joselu scored a brace in the final minutes to propel Madrid into the lead and, subsequently, to the UCL final.
To overcome their shortcomings against the most decorated club in UCL history, Bayern will have to rely on an attacking force that has been the most effective and consistent in Europe this season, led by Luis Diaz, Harry Kane and Michael Olise. This season, the three forwards are comparable to last year’s PSG forwards, presenting themselves as unparalleled marksmen. A support cast of Serge Gnabry, Jamal Musiala, Leon Goretzka, Joshua Kimmich and 18-year-old sensation Lennart Karl will help determine whether Bayern’s scoring can outmatch Madrid’s attacking prowess.
2025-26 UCL performances:
League stage:
Ranking 2nd
Record: 7W, 1L
Round of 16 — vs Atalanta BC:
First leg (away): 6-1 win
Second leg (home): 4-1 win
Sporting CP v. Arsenal FC
Total matchups: 7 matches
Record: 3 Arsenal wins, 1 Sporting win and 3 draws
Total UCL matchups: 1 match
Record: 1 Arsenal win
Sporting
Sporting are making a first UCL quarterfinals appearance, and they face the best-performing club from this season’s UCL league stage. Sporting’s run to the quarterfinals has been impressive: defeating the likes of PSG in the league stage to qualify for a bye to the round of 16 and eliminating Eliteserien (Norwegian first division) club FK Bodø/Glimt in the round of 16. That round of 16 victory was a statement performance, rallying from a 3-0 away loss in the first-leg match by winning 5-0 after extra-time at home in the second-leg match.
At this juncture, Sporting are officially in uncharted territory. The Lisbon-based club will need to rely on the squad’s tenacity to have a shot at defeating the 2025-26 EPL leaders and, according to many outlets and pundits, this year’s UCL title favourites. To that end, Sporting’s forwards — led by Maximilian Araújo, Luis Suárez (not the Uruguayan) and Giovani Quenda — will have to be efficient against the best defence in Europe. The entire Sporting squad’s defensive effort — led by the likes of goalkeeper Rui Silva, defenders Gonçalo Inácio and Matheus Reis, and midfielders Morton Hjulmand and Francisco Trincão — will need to stay vigilant and well-prepared against Arsenal’s quick ball movement, especially on set pieces (e.g., corner kicks, free kicks and penalties). One goal conceded against such an opponent could sink Sporting’s hopes of qualifying for their first UCL semifinals.
2025-26 UCL performances:
League stage:
Ranking 7th
Record: 5W, 1D, 2L
Round of 16 — vs Bodø:
First leg (away): 3-0 loss
Second leg (home): 5-0 win after extra-time
Arsenal
The 2025-26 EPL table leaders and this year’s UCL league stage winners — achieved with a perfect record — have arguably the easiest matchup and are on the easier side of the bracket. This matchup’s winner will duel against either Barcelona or Atlético in the semifinals. Arsenal’s disciplined playing style and impeccable strategy for set pieces places them a tier above the seven other quarterfinalists. Arsenal also boast more UCL experience than Sporting, with almost all of their roster being part of last year’s run to the UCL semifinals, where they were eliminated by eventual winners PSG.
The Gunners will rely on their reliable defensive line and superb midfielders to control a possession-based game. If the defence — led by Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel and William Saliba — plays similar to how it has so far this season, Sporting forwards will have a difficult time trying to test Arsenal goalkeeper David Raya. Moreover, midfielders Martin Ødegaard, Declan Rice and Martín Zubimendi will need to dictate the tempo of the match and help launch attacks against Sporting’s defence. As a result, Arsenal forwards Eberechi Eze, Victor Gyökeres and Bukayo Saka will likely pose a significant threat. Arsernal manager Mikel Arteta also has a number of wildcards that can contribute to the club’s attack, namely midfielders Mikel Marino and Leandro Trossard, and forwards Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus and Gabriel Martinelli. Any of these players can tip the balance of a match in Arsenal’s favour at any given time — hence wildcards.
2025-26 UCL performances:
League stage:
Ranking 1st
Record: 8W
Round of 16 — vs Bayer Leverkusen:
First leg (away): 1-1 draw
Second leg (home): 2-0 win
Our Matchup Predictions
Based on recent overall performances, recent matchups between this round’s opponents, and current injuries and suspensions, we predict that Barcelona, PSG, Bayern and Arsenal will advance to the semifinals. Should these predictions materialize, the 2025-26 UCL semifinal matchups will be: Barcelona v. Arsenal and PSG v. Bayern. We will provide additional predictions for the semifinal winners in our UCL semifinals preview, which we will release in due time.
Odds to Advance to the Semifinals
According to Opta Analyst, as of April 4, 2026, the probabilities of the eight 2025-26 UCL quarterfinalists advancing to the UCL semifinals are the following:
Arsenal: 78.4%
Barcelona: 67.1%
Bayern: 63.7%
PSG: 55.5%
Liverpool: 45.5%
Real Madrid: 36.3%
Atlético Madrid: 32.9%
Sporting: 21.6%
Odds to Win the Title
Opta Analyst notes that, also as of April 4, 2026, the probabilities of the eight 2025-26 UCL quarterfinalists winning the UCL title are the following:
Arsenal: 29.3%
Bayern: 20.1%
Barcelona: 16.4%
PSG: 10.7%
Real Madrid: 9.2%
Liverpool: 7.1%
Atlético Madrid: 4.1%
Sporting: 3.1%
