2025-26 UEFA Europa League Final Preview & Prediction
By: AT
Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
On May 20, 2026, Premier League (EPL) club Aston Villa and Bundesliga’s SC Freiburg will compete in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League (UEL) final, which will take place at Tüpraş Stadium in Istanbul, Türkiye. Unlike last year’s all-EPL final between then-struggling Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur – both clubs ranked 16th and 17th at the time, respectively – this final will consist of two clubs that are guaranteed to compete in a European continental club competition next season.
The 2025-26 UEL final marks the first time that Villa and Freiburg play against each other. Villa currently rank fourth in the 2025-26 EPL table and, on May 15, qualified for the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League (UCL); on May 16, Freiburg concluded their 2025-26 Bundesliga campaign with a seventh-place finish. Freiburg clinched a berth for next season’s UEFA Conference League (UECL). However, a UEL final win will grant them passage to next season’s UCL.
This final features two clubs that, only a decade ago, were playing in their respective second divisions. Freiburg spent the 2015-16 season in 2. Bundesliga before earning promotion back to Bundesliga, while Villa competed in the EFL Championship from 2016-17 to 2018-19, winning the 2019 promotion playoffs to return to the EPL.
This article previews the UEL final matchup with data-driven analysis. It also includes both our own intuitive predictions and refers to Kalshi’s projections for the UEL title winner. It also indicates which player we consider to be each club’s most crucial piece for the final.
Aston Villa
Performances in Domestic Competitions in 2025-26
Premier League ranking: 4th (62 points from 37 matches; one match remaining)
FA Cup: Round of 32 (lost 3-1 at home vs Newcastle United)
EFL Cup: Round of 32 (lost on penalties away vs Brentford FC)
Performances in 2025-26 UEFA Europa League:
League stage finish: 2nd (21 points from 8 matches, automatic qualification to the round of 16)
Round of 16: 3-0 on aggregate vs LOSC Lille
Quarterfinals: 7-1 on aggregate vs Bologna FC
Semifinals: 4-1 on aggregate vs Nottingham Forest
As our 2025-26 UEL title favourites, Villa will be playing in their first UEL final in club history. However, The Villains are seeking a third major European trophy, having won the European Cup (now UCL) in 1981-82 and the UEFA Super Cup the following season.
This season, Villa have delivered a series of stellar performances, from defeating major EPL clubs — including last Friday’s 4-2 home victory against Liverpool FC that ended a three-match winless streak, to showing unmatched consistency in the UEL. The Birmingham-based club won 12 of their 14 UEL matches this season, losing only 2-1 away against Eredivisie club Go-Ahead Eagles in the league stage and in the first-leg semifinal match against league rivals Nottingham Forest. Villa also eliminated Ligue 1 clubs LOSC Lille, Serie A’s Bologna FC and Forest — two of which currently rank in the top 10 rankings across Europe’s top five leagues. So far, Villa have scored the most goals among all clubs participating in this season’s UEL campaign, with 28.
With Villa’s attack remaining consistent this season, the player to watch is forward Morgan Rogers. In 2025-26, the Englishman has continued to rise into a bona fide talisman and transition playmaker, producing 11 goals and 13 assists in 54 matches across all competitions; in UEL, he produced two goals and four assists in 14 matches. The 23-year-old enters the final in strong form, having recorded a goal and an assist in the 4-2 victory against Liverpool. After being an x-factor in last season’s run to the UCL quarterfinals, a productive performance by Rogers in this final could be enough to push Villa’s attack toward the 2025-26 UEL title.
SC Freiburg
Performances in Domestic Competitions in 2025-26
Bundesliga ranking: 7th (47 points from 34 matches)
DFB-Pokal: Semifinals (lost 2-1 after extra-time away vs VfB Stuttgart)
Performances in 2025-26 UEFA Europa League:
League stage finish: 7th (17 points from 8 matches, automatic qualification to the round of 16)
Round of 16: 5-2 on aggregate vs KRC Genk
Quarterfinals: 6-1 on aggregate vs Celta Vigo
Semifinals: 4-3 on aggregate vs SC Braga
The 2025-26 UEL final marks Freiburg’s first European final in club history. The southwestern German club will lean on their experience in single-match knockout competitions, including this season’s run to the DFB-Pokal (German cup) semifinals.
In Bundesliga this season, Freiburg struggled to find sustained consistency, fluctuating between Europa League contention and mid-table. They ultimately finished on a high note, defeating third-place and UCL-bound RB Leipzig 4-1 at home. Their seventh-place finish secured a UECL berth, but unlike Villa — which already qualified for next season’s UCL — Freiburg have far more at stake: a UEL final victory would propel them to UCL next season; the UECL berth would be given to eighth-place Eintracht Frankfurt.
In UEL, Freiburg displayed steady form, winning five of their eight league-stage matches and losing only once — a 1-0 defeat away against Lille on the final matchday. In the knockout rounds, even without playing against some of the highest-ranked opponents in this year’s competition, Freiburg nevertheless delivered championship-level performances, eliminating LaLiga club Celta Vigo and mounting an impressive comeback against Primeira Liga club SC Braga. Across their 14 UEL matches, Freiburg scored 25 goals, second only to Villa’s 28.
The Freiburg player to watch in this matchup is midfielder Johan Manzambi, who scored a crucial goal in the second-leg semifinal match against Braga. The young Swiss international is one of football’s rising stars and has been central to Freiburg’s success, serving both as a creative playmaker and a tenacious scoring threat. In 2025-26, Manzambi produced seven goals and nine assists in 46 matches across all competitions; in UEL, he produced two goals and two assists in 14 matches. After also providing an assist in Freiburg’s 4-1 victory against Leipzig, Manzambi enters the final in strong form and will look to take the next step: challenging the elite defence of a top-four EPL club. While Freiburg’s forwards have been reliable all season, it may fall to Manzambi to unlock Villa’s defence — or even emerge as the primary scoring threat.
Our Final Prediction
Based on our 2026 predictions, as well as recent overall performances and current injuries, we predict that Aston Villa will win the 2025-26 UEL title.
Odds to Win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League Title
Prediction markets platform Kalshi notes that, as of May 17, 2026, Villa are favourites to win the 2025-26 UEL final in regulation (within the 90+ minutes), with implied odds of about 59%. Freiburg’s chances sit at approximately 18%, while Kalshi assigns roughly a 24% probability that the match goes to extra-time.
Comment which club will win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League title.
