2026 Men’s Ballon d’Or Nominees and Predictions
By: AT
Image Credit: Danmarks Nationalleksikon
On September 28, 2026, voting for the 2026 Men’s Ballon d’Or, the world’s most prestigious individual award, closed. The winner of this renowned award will be crowned on October 26, 2026 at the London Palladium Theatre in London, England. The ceremony’s relocation marks a departure from tradition, as previous editions had usually taken place in Paris.
The award covers performances during the 2025-26 season, beginning in August 2025. Before 2022, the Ballon d’Or was awarded based on performances over the calendar year in which the award was presented. Voters consider the players’ individual performances and statistics, their impact on matches and the titles won throughout the season at both club and international level. Sometimes, as was the case for the 2024 Ballon d’Or vote, fair-play can influence the outcome. In that instance, then-Manchester City midfielder Rodri narrowly defeated Real Madrid forward Vinícius Júnior.
This year’s 30 candidates include defenders Pau Cubarsí, Achraf Hakimi and William Saliba; midfielders Jude Bellingham, Bruno Fernandes and 2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri; and forwards Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal and reigning Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé. It is also worth noting that, despite turning 40 next year, eight-time Ballon d’Or winner Lionel Messi has been nominated for the award, largely due to his heroic performances that guided Argentina to the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Among the candidates, 27 have never won the Ballon d’Or.
2026 Men’s Ballon d’Or Nominees by Club and by League
The 2026 Ballon d’Or shortlist includes players from 12 different clubs, nine of which are based in Europe. The three non-European clubs represented on the shortlist are Major League Soccer club Inter Miami (Messi), and Saudi Pro League clubs Al-Nassr (Sadio Mané) and Al Qasidah (Julián Quiñones).
Among the 27 nominees who play in Europe, 10 represent Ligue 1 club and reigning two-time UEFA Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), setting an all-time record for the most Ballon d’Or nominees from a single club in one year (see Figure 1). The 10 players are defenders Achraf Hakimi, club captain Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes and Willian Pacho; midfielders João Neves, Fabián Ruiz and Vitinha; and forwards Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Ferran Torres. However, Torres spent the 2025-26 season with LaLiga club FC Barcelona.
2026 Men's Ballon D'Or Nominees By Club
Includes overlaps regarding players who have played for two different clubs in 2025-26.
Source: Sports Illustrated
Although 10 PSG players feature on the 2026 Ballon d’Or shortlist, no other Ligue 1 player was nominated. Eight leagues are represented among the nominees, including Europe’s top five leagues: the Bundesliga (Germany), LaLiga (Spain), Ligue 1 (France),* the Premier League (England)** and Serie A (Italy). LaLiga is the best represented league on the 2026 Ballon d’Or shortlist, boasting eight nominees, including players who spent the 2025-26 season in another league (see Figure 2).
2026 Men's Ballon D'Or Nominees By League
Includes overlaps regarding players who have played for two different clubs in 2025-26.
Source: Sports Illustrated
According to Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the most popular prediction markets, Kane and Yamal are the overwhelming favourites to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or. Both players enjoyed excellent seasons with Bayern Munich and FC Barcelona, respectively, and also starred in the 2026 World Cup. As of October 4, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket estimate Harry Kane’s chances of winning the Ballon d’Or at 48% and 44%, respectively, while Yamal’s chances are placed at 48% and 49%. It is worth noting that Yamal’s stock has increased rapidly in recent weeks. Mbappé and Messi rank third and fourth, and trail Kane and Yamal by a considerable margin.
In our 2026 predictions, published at the beginning of the year, we predicted that Harry Kane would win the award, although that prediction was somewhat contingent on Bayern winning the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League title. Despite Bayern’s shortcomings in that competition, we maintain our prediction until the day of the award nomination. In our view, had Bayern won that title, Kane would have undoubtedly run away with the award.
Figure 3 shows the leading candidates for the 2026 Ballon d’Or and their respective probabilities of winning the award.
2026 Men's Ballon D'Or Predictions (Kalshi)
Others (each): less than 1%, not shown. The percentages shown add up to 104%, so slices are sized relative to that total.
Figure was last updated on October 4, 2026.
Source: Kalshi
2026 Men's Ballon D'Or Predictions (Polymarket)
Others (each): less than 1%, not shown.
Figure was last updated on October 4, 2026.
Source: Polymarket
*Ligue 1 also includes AS Monaco, which are based in the Principality of Monaco.
**The EPL may include a number of clubs from Wales. These clubs, which currently participate in one of the English Football League’s top four divisions, include EFL Championship clubs Swansea City and Wrexham AFC, EFL League One club Cardiff City and EFL League Two club Newport County. That said, there are no Welsh clubs competing in the EPL for the 2025-26 season.
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