2026 FIFA World Cup Knockout Stage Predictions: Part II (Quarterfinals)
By: AT
Image credit: Igor Batista
The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage kicked off on June 28, with Canada defeating South Africa 1-0 to kickstart the newly implemented round of 32. That match marked the knockout-stage debut for both nations. Since then, 15 other round-of-32 matches and all eight round of 16 matches had taken place across Canada, Mexico and the United States. In the latter round, Canada and Mexico each hosted one match for the final time in the tournament; the remaining matches will take place in the United States. The eight round-of-16 results (and the venues in which these matches took place) are the following:
Canada 0-3 Morocco (Houston);
Paraguay 0-1 France (Philadelphia);
Brazil 1-2 Norway (New Jersey);
Mexico 2-3 England (Mexico City);
Portugal 0-1 Spain (Dallas);
United States 1-4 Belgium (Seattle);
Argentina 3-2 Egypt (Atlanta); and
Switzerland 0-0 Colombia – Switzerland won on penalties (Vancouver).
Based on our round of 16 predictions, we have scored 5/8, with Brazil suffering an upset loss against Norway, and Portugal and the United States crashing out of the tournament with respective losses against Spain and Belgium.
Quarterfinals Matchups & Predictions
The 2026 World Cup quarterfinals matchups (and the venues in which these matches take place) are the following:
Thursday, July 9
France v. Morocco (Boston).
Friday, July 10
Spain v. Belgium (Los Angeles).
Saturday, July 11
Norway v. England (Miami); and
Argentina v. Switzerland (Kansas City).
Our four predicted quarterfinal winners are the following:
Thursday, July 9: France (2-0 win);
Friday, July 10: Spain (1-0 win);
Saturday, July 11: England (3-1 win) and Switzerland (2-1 win).
Win Probabilities
France v. Morocco
According to Opta Analyst, as of writing, France is favoured to win its quarterfinal match against Morocco, with a 62.2% chance to win; Morocco’s win probabilities stand at 15.7%. Update: Our prediction for this match, including the score, has materialized perfectly!
Spain v. Belgium
Meanwhile, Opta Analyst predicts that Spain has a 58.3% chance of defeating Belgium, which boasts a 19.1% chance of defeating the defending UEFA European Championship winners.
Norway v. England
Opta also assesses that England are the favourites over dark horses Norway, possessing a 50.4% chance to defeat the Nordic nation; Norway’s chances to win against England are 25.1%.
Switzerland v. Argentina
In the final 2026 World Cup quarterfinal matchup, Opta calculates that Argentina has an overwhelming 57.1% chance of defeating Switzerland, whose chances of defeating Argentina stand at 18.7%.
Bottom Line
Our predictions align mostly with Opta’s calculations. However, we believe that the sole outlier, Switzerland, has a chance to stun the football world with a narrow victory over the defending World Cup champions. It will not be easy, but if Switzerland plays its style of football and can relatively dictate the game based on its football style (and with healthy Johan Manzambi and Ruben Vargas), La Nati may have a chance to reach its first World Cup semifinal.
Comment your four 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal winners/semifinalists!
