2026 FIFA World Cup Knockout Stage Predictions: Part III (Semifinals)
By: AT
Image credit: Igor Batista
The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage kicked off on June 28, with Canada defeating South Africa 1-0 to kickstart the newly implemented round of 32. That match marked the knockout-stage debut for both nations. Since then, 15 other round-of-32 matches, all eight round of 16 matches and all four quarterfinal matches have taken place across Canada, Mexico and the United States. The four quarterfinal results (and the venues in which these matches took place) are the following:
France 2-0 Morocco (Boston);
Spain 2-1 Belgium (Los Angeles);
Norway 1-2 England — after extra-time (Miami); and
Argentina 3-1 Switzerland — after extra-time (Kansas City).
Based on our quarterfinals predictions, we have scored 3/4 on our predictions. Although we did not witness a Swiss upset against Messi and co., we correctly predicted the three other winners and correctly predicted the score for the France—Morocco match.
Semifinal Matchups & Predictions
The 2026 World Cup semifinal matchups (and the venues in which these matches take place) are the following:
Tuesday, July 14
France v. Spain (Dallas).
Wednesday, July 15
England v. Argentina (Atlanta).
We predict that, for the first semifinal match, France will defeat Spain 2-1, which would amplify the Bastille Day celebrations. For the second semifinal match, we predict that England will defeat Argentina 2-1, getting their revenge from the 1986 World Cup quarterfinals, when in the wake of the Falkland Islands war, Argentina defeated England by a 2-1 score. Legendary forward Diego Maradona scored both of Argentina’s goal, one being the infamous Hand of God and the other categorized as arguably the best World Cup goal of all time.
Win Probabilities
France v. Spain
According to Kalshi, as of writing, France is favoured to win its semifinal match against Spain, with a 59.5% chance to win; Spain’s win probabilities stand at 40.5%.
England v. Argentina
Kalshi also predicts that England has a 54.0% chance of defeating Argentina, the defending World Cup champions, which boasts a 46.0% chance of defeating The Three Lions.
Chances to Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Among the four 2026 World Cup semifinalists, France — runner-up in the 2022 World Cup — has the highest chances of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, at 34.0%. The figure below shows each semifinalist’s probability of winning the tournament.
The figure was last updated on July 12, 2026.
Source: Opta Analyst
Comment your four 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal winners/finalists!
