2026 FIFA World Cup Knockout Stage Predictions: Part I (Round of 32 & Round of 16)

By: AT

Image credit: Igor Batista

The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage kicked off on June 28, with Canada defeating South Africa 1-0 to kickstart the newly implemented round of 32. That match marked the knockout-stage debut for both nations. Since then, 15 other round of 32 matches took place across Canada, Mexico and the United States. The 16 round of 32 results (and the venues in which these matches took place) are the following:

• Canada 1-0 South Africa (Los Angeles);

• Brazil 2-1 Japan (Houston);

• Germany 1-1 Paraguay — Paraguay won on penalties (Boston);

• The Netherlands 1-1 Morocco — Morocco won on penalties (Monterrey);

• Côte d’Ivoire 1-2 Norway (Dallas);

• France 3-0 Sweden (New Jersey);

• Mexico 2-0 Ecuador (Mexico City);

• England 2-1 DR Congo (Atlanta);

• Belgium 3-2 Senegal — after extra-time (Seattle);

• United States 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina (San Francisco/Bay Area);

• Spain 3-0 Austria (Los Angeles);

• Portugal 2-1 Croatia (Toronto);

• Switzerland 2-0 Algeria (Vancouver);

• Australia 1-1 Egypt — Egypt won on penalties (Dallas);

• Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde — after extra-time (Miami); and

• Colombia 1-0 Ghana (Kansas City).

Round of 32 Predictions

Based on our unreleased predictions, we predicted the following winners:

• Canada;

• Brazil;

• Germany;

• Morocco;

• Norway;

• France;

• Mexico;

• England;

• Senegal;

• United States;

• Spain;

• Portugal;

• Switzerland;

• Egypt;

• Argentina; and

• Colombia.

Overall, we would have scored 14/16, with only Germany and Senegal suffering “upset” defeats at the hands of Paraguay and Belgium, respectively. While the Germany—Paraguay match was decided on an entertaining round on penalties, the Belgium—Senegal match entailed the more shocking turn of events, with Belgium overcoming an 0-2 deficit and winning 3-2 in extra-time. After trailing 2-0 at the 85th minute of regular time, Belgian midfielder Youri Tielemans’s penalty goal in extra-time has become the goal scored at the latest time in a World Cup match, at the 120+4th minute.

Round of 16 Matchups & Predictions

The 2026 World Cup round of 16 matchups (and the venues in which these matches took place) are the following:

Saturday, July 4

• Canada v. Morocco (Houston); and

• Paraguay v. France (Philadelphia).

Sunday, July 5

• Brazil v. Norway (New Jersey); and

• Mexico v. England (Mexico City).

Monday, July 6

• Portugal v. Spain (Dallas); and

• United States v. Belgium (Seattle).

Tuesday, July 7

• Argentina v. Egypt (Atlanta); and

• Switzerland v. Colombia (Vancouver).

Our eight predicted round of 16 winners are the following:

• Saturday, July 4: Morocco (2-1 win) and France (3-0 win);

• Sunday, July 5: Brazil (2-1 win) and England (1-0 win);

• Monday, July 6: Portugal (win on penalties; 1-1 after extra-time) and United States (2-1 win after extra-time); and

• Tuesday, July 7: Argentina (2-0 win) and Switzerland (2-1 win).

Win Probabilities

Canada v. Morocco

According to Opta Analyst, as of writing, Morocco is favoured to win its round of 16 match against Canada, with a 51.8% chance to win; Canada’s win probabilities stand at 21.7%.

Match Outcome Probability

Paraguay v. France

As of writing, France has a whopping 79.7% chance of winning its round of 16 match; Paraguay’s chance of winning this match are 6.7%.

Match Outcome Probability

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Comment your eight predicted winners for the 2026 FIFA World Cup round of 16!