2025-26 UEFA Champions League Semifinals Preview & Predictions
By: AT
Image Credit: Janosch Diggelmann
The quarterfinals of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League (UCL) round of 16 concluded in early April. Based on the bracket created during the UCL quarterfinals draw, Premier League (EPL) club Arsenal FC will play against LaLiga club Atlético Madrid and Bundesliga club Bayern Munich will duel against Ligue 1 club Paris Saint-Germain (PSG).
This article previews each UCL semifinal matchup with data-driven analysis. It also includes both our own intuitive predictions and Opta Analyst’s projections for the semifinal winners and the title winners. While our quarterfinals preview focused the clubs’ tactical systems and crucial players, this edition highlights what we consider to be each club’s most crucial player for this round.
Arsenal FC vs Atlético Madrid
Total matchups (all competitions): 3 matches
Record: 1 Arsenal win, 1 Atlético win and 1 draw
Total UCL matchups: 1 match
Record: 1 Arsenal win (4-0) in this year’s UCL league stage
Arsenal
The 2025-26 EPL leaders and this year’s UCL league stage winners — achieved with a perfect record — enter the semifinals with the most favourable matchup and sit on the less challenging side of the bracket. Arsenal’s disciplined playing style and impeccable set-piece strategy places them a tier above the three other semifinalists. However, the squad is currently experiencing a difficult spell, having squandered a sizeable lead at the top of the 2025-26 EPL table and edging past Sporting CP in the UCL quarterfinals by a narrow 1-0 aggregate score. The Gunners return to the semifinals for a consecutive year and will hope to avoid a repeat off last season’s 3-1 aggregate defeat to eventual winners PSG.
The Arsenal player to watch for this matchup is midfielder Declan Rice. As one of the best two-way players in Europe, English international provides stability in midfield while also creating chances that spur attacks. In 32 EPL matches this season, Rice ranks tied for third in the EPL in most key passes with 54. He has also proven time and again that he can rise to the occasion in crucial UCL matches. In this season’s UCL league stage match against Atlético — a 4-0 home victory on matchday 3 — Rice dominated the midfield and produced an assist. Across all competitions in 2025-26, Rice has produced 11 assists, including two in 10 UCL matches.
Atlético Madrid
Despite losing 4-0 against The Gunners in the UCL league stage and ranking fourth in the 2025-26 LaLiga table, Atlético have resembled a completely different club in the UCL knockout rounds. They defeated league rivals FC Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate in the quarterfinals, highlighted by a 2-0 away victory in the first-leg match. Historically, Atlético have been more successful than Arsenal at this stage of the competition: several members of the current squad played crucial roles in the club’s run to the 2015-16 UCL final. Atlético manager Diego Simeone led the club to that final and to the 2013-14 UCL final.
The Atlético player to watch is forward Ademola Lookman. The recently acquired Nigerian international has delivered excellent performances, recording five goals and four assists in 10 knockout-stage matches across the Copa del Rey and UCL, including the round-winning goal against Barcelona in the second-leg match. In 37 matches across all competitions this season for Atalanta BC and Atlético, Lookman has tallied 10 goals and six assists. A rapid and efficient marksman, Lookman is Atlético’s best hope of breaking down Arsenal’s formidable back line of Gabriel, Riccardo Calafiori and William Saliba.
Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain
Total matchups (all competitions): 16 matches
Record: 9 Bayern wins, 7 PSG wins
Total UCL matchups: 15 matches
Record: 9 Bayern wins, 6 PSG wins
Bayern
As our UCL title favourites and the newly crowned 2025-26 Bundesliga winners, Bayern seek to exorcise their demons against the club that eliminated them from the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. In UCL, however, they aim to prolong their dominance over PSG, having won the last five UCL matches between the two club. The Bavarian club most recently extended that streak in this season’s UCL league stage with a 2-1 victory at Parc des Princes on matchday 4.
The Bayern player to watch is forward Luis Díaz. The Colombian international is arguably one of the most dangerous players in world football at the moment. In addition to being a major contributor to Kane’s outstanding season — which lead to the Englishman winning the Ballon d’Or — Díaz has been in exceptional form himself. In 45 matches across all competitions, the 29-year-old has recorded 25 goals and 20 assists, including four goals and three assists in 10 UCL matches. Díaz also proved lethal in this year’s UCL matchup against PSG, scoring both of Bayern’s goals before obtaining a red card for a violent tackle on PSG defender Achraf Hakimi — all in the first half.
PSG
To win consecutive UCL titles, PSG will also aim to exorcise their demons — not only by snapping their five-match losing streak against Bayern, in this competition but by finally moving past the heartbreak of the 2019-20 UCL final, which the Bavarian club won by a 1-0 score. Although PSG captured their first UCL title last season — in Munich’s Allianz Arena, of all places — defeating Bayern would taste extra sweet for the Parisians. With five of their last eight knockout victories (including last year’s final) being against EPL clubs, a showdown with the Bundesliga giants may prove their toughest challenge, especially at a stage in the season when a number of players are feeling the strain of three consecutive long seasons — each of which contained runs to the UCL semifinals, at least.
The PSG player to watch is midfielder João Neves. The Portuguese international has been a crucial element to PSG’s impeccable midfield and a significant contributor to their success since the start of last season. The 21-year-old excels in duels, ball possession proven and in making crucial passes, completing 92.3% of his passes. Fellow countryman Vitinha is the only other PSG non-defender to achieve a better rate (94.1%) and complete more than 200 passes in the competition. If Vitinha misses the first leg due to a lingering heel injury, Neves will be tasked with becoming the focal point of PSG’s fast-pace, possession-heavy playing style. Thriving under Luis Enrique’s system, Neves consistently disrupts opposition attacks while initiating dangerous plays for his teammates. In 30 matches across all competitions, Neves has registered six goals and four assists, including one goal and three assists in 11 UCL matches.
Our Matchup Predictions
To recap our UCL quarterfinal predictions, we correctly predicted three of the four UCL semifinalists, with Barcelona letting us down.
Based on recent overall performances, recent matchups between this round’s opponents, and current injuries and suspensions, we predict that Bayern Munich and Atlético Madrid will advance to the 2025-26 UCL final.
Odds to Advance to the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Final
According to Opta Analyst, as of April 25, 2026, the probabilities of the four 2025-26 UCL quarterfinalists advancing to the UCL final are the following:
Arsenal: 70.9%
Bayern: 60.1%
PSG: 39.9%
Atlético: 29.1%
Odds to Win the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Title
Opta Analyst notes that, also as of April 25, 2026, the probabilities of the eight 2025-26 UCL quarterfinalists winning the UCL title are the following:
Bayern: 35.8%
Arsenal: 35.2%
PSG: 20.0%
Atlético: 9.0%
Comment your predicted winners for the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League semifinals and the title.
