2026 FIFA World Cup Knockout Stage Predictions: Part IV (Third-place Match and FINAL)
By: AT
Image credit: Igor Batista
The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage kicked off on June 28, with Canada defeating South Africa 1-0 to kickstart the newly implemented round of 32. That match marked the knockout-stage debut for both nations. Since then, 15 other round-of-32 matches, all eight round of 16 matches, all four quarterfinal matches and both semifinal matches have taken place across Canada, Mexico and the United States. The two semifinal results (and the venues in which these matches took place) are the following:
France 0-2 Spain (Dallas); and
England 1-2 Argentina (Atlanta).
Based on our semifinals predictions, we have scored a dismal 0/2 on our predictions. Hopefully, predictions for the final two matches of the competition materialize in our favour.
Final and Third-place Match Contests & Predictions
The 2026 World Cup final and third-place match contests (and the venues in which these matches will take place) are the following:
Saturday, July 18
Third-place match: France v. England (Miami).
Sunday, July 19
FINAL: Spain v. Argentina (New York/New Jersey).
For the third-place match, we predict an entertaining and high-scoring thriller, with France edging England with a 3-2 victory, perhaps after extra-time. For the final — a match framed as a highly anticipated inter-generational contest between 39-year-old Lionel Messi (Argentina) and 19-year-old Lamine Yamal (Spain) — we envision a more cagey match, with Spain winning by a narrow 1-0 score.
Win Probabilities
Third-place Match: France v. England
According to Kalshi, as of writing, France is favoured to finish in third-place, with a 63.0% chance to defeat England; England’s win probabilities stand at 37.0%.
England has the upper hand against their cross-channel rivals, winning 17 out of 32 matches; France has won 10 matches against The Three Lions. With respect to World Cup matches, England has won two of three matches, emerging victorious against Les Bleus during the group stages of the 1966 World Cup and 1982 World Cup; France’s sole World Cup victory against England occurred in the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup.
FINAL: Spain v. Argentina
Kalshi also predicts that Spain has a 57.7% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup title against Argentina, the defending World Cup champion, which possesses a 42.3% chance of defeating La Roja.
In 14 head-to-head contests, each nation boasts six victories, with the two remaining matches ending in draws. The sole matchup in a major competition occurred in the group stage of the 1966 World Cup, when Argentina defeated Spain by a 2-1 score.
Most World Cup Titles by Nation
Since 1930, eight nations have won at least one World Cup: five from Europe and three from South America (see figure). The two finalists of this World Cup have a combined for four FIFA World Cup titles — one for Spain and three for Argentina — and have now reached the final a combined nine times, including this year’s final.
In the previous 22 tournaments, Brazil have won the most titles, with five. Italy and Germany both trail Brazil with four titles each, while Argentina — the defending champions after winning the 2022 World Cup in Qatar — have won three World Cup titles.
Germany's four World Cup titles include those of West Germany, which won the tournament in 1954, 1974 and 1990.
The figure was last updated on June 15, 2026.
Source: FIFA
